For a returning player this starts from last season’s actual total — in our own testing nothing we tried beat it, so we don’t dress it up. Newcomers, who have no last season here, are estimated from what players drafted around their rank have historically scored. Every adjustment is listed above, so you can disagree with one without discarding the number. What this does and doesn’t claim.
Every season now carries its own xG, bonus, starts, Pts/90, games and Finish — figures that used to be shown for 2025-26 alone. FPL rank and Gap stay on 2025-26: FPL never published a draft rank for earlier seasons, and inventing one from that year’s prices would make Gap look like FPL got a player wrong when it only means he was cheap.
We only show a projection when a player has enough recent data for the model to stand behind it. How we measure accuracy.
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